Neither of these, or many of the other things we are hearing from those convinced that the new code is generating too many doubles is correct. However the probability of those two sequences of four rolls occurring from random rolls of the dice is exactly the same. This included back to back 66s, followed a few rolls later by back to back 55s. Yet here we have this low probability event occurring 3 times in a small set of simulated matches! The problem is that with smaller number sets it gets harder to say when a repeated sequence is evidence of non-randomness. Which would, based on the probabilities occur only 1 time in , rolls, but here it is a data set of only 64, random rolls. Mike is a programmer and knows the people at SHG — he does not work for them, nor do I — so he let them know that there was an issue and shared our data with them. A lot of people are complaining about the number of doubles, but the data speaks for itself. And what about an even longer sequence of doubles?
Doubles should occur This included back to back 66s, followed a few rolls later by back to back 55s. Mike Petch, who does a lot of gnubg development, is doing the analysis at this point, I am helping collect data. If you want to read the whole thread that kicked off the whole thing you can find it here http: This is a complaint we hear a lot, "my opponent rolled 4 doubles in a row that never happens with real dice", for example. The longest sequence in the simulation is 7 doubles in row! And what about an even longer sequence of doubles? The simple fact is there are 36 possible rolls, 6 of which are doubles. The problem is that with smaller number sets it gets harder to say when a repeated sequence is evidence of non-randomness. Mike is a programmer and knows the people at SHG — he does not work for them, nor do I — so he let them know that there was an issue and shared our data with them. Now rarely is anyone going to complain that I only got 1 double 1, yet the absence of these is just as powerful of an indicator of how far off from the "average" values short samplings of random numbers can be. Neither of these, or many of the other things we are hearing from those convinced that the new code is generating too many doubles is correct. A lot of people are complaining about the number of doubles, but the data speaks for itself. Most people look at the first sequence and see non-random and the second sequence and see random. For the rest of you, you now know as much as the story as I do. Notice I said question, not say for sure, we would need more evidence before reaching a conclusion. On the other hand, if I had a set of ,,,,,, random dice rolls the fact that I found a run of 15 12s should not be too surprising. Original Post This post does not really related to the subject of the blog, but i am putting it here so people that ask me about it on SHG can have a reference for what is going on. The next thing to keep in mind is that every roll of the dice is independent of the previous or subsequent rolls. Of course, all we have done is analyze the data before and after the change actually Mike has done all of the after change analysis I have just been helping collect data , SHG has made the changes based on seeing the problem. Short of rolling real dice multiple thousands of time this is as close as we are going to get to simulating true, random dice rolls. So, what can we learn from this experiment? Well looking at the data from the simulation a sequence of 4 doubles in a row came up 38 times, and in 3 of the simulated matches this happened twice! A couple of days ago I won a game in 15 rolls I should have doubled and gotten out of it a lot earlier probably , of which 7 were doubles. This data shows that doubles are now as you would expect. I downloaded simulated dice data from random. I am including this brief discussion to hopefully clear up some of the confusion people have with what they should expect to see in random dice.
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